The aim of the article. The aim of this study is to develop the selection technology of the enterprise business model in conditions of market dynamism and uncertainty, as well as testing of this technology at a specific enterprise according to the method of situational analysis. The results of the analysis. Economic development of modern markets is characterized by the fact that almost all the enterprises experience significant dynamics and a high degree of entropy, which complicates the decision-making process. As the basic unit of the economy, the enterprise should respond correctly to new objective challenges, including: instability of global financial markets, business intellectualization and acceleration of scientific-technological progress with simultaneous strengthening of environmental demands to economic systems, increasing of competition and its transition to a global level, rapid change of consumer demands and individualization of consumer proposal, increased attention to corporate responsibility towards society and so on. Obviously, the important task of modern enterprises becomes a justification of business organization model, which is selected in accordance with the established potential and the aforementioned challenges. The authors have developed a selection technology of the enterprise business model, which involves the combination of scenarios use, strategic alternatives matrix, SWOT-analysis and the method of «decisions tree» during the implementation of the following steps: – generating of alternative scenarios of enterprise business models with the help of strategic alternatives matrix. Previously prepared analytical materials are used in the preparation of scenarios. Creating a scenario involves the following steps: determining a time interval formulation of the events, verbal interpretation of their essence, their quantitative assessment; – choosing the type of scenarios and scenarios selection criteria for business modeling of enterprise activity; – making verbal description of the nature of each strategic alternative and their SWOT-analysis; – organization of expectations market research and preferences of target consumers. This is a «field study», which is carried out in order to collect additional primary data, processing of which will provide grounds for a decision making at a later stage; – economic evaluation, drafting of objectives tree and the choice of acceptable business model of the company. The paper tested the technology at a particular investigated enterprise. Domestic instrument-making enterprise Ltd plant «Elektronpobutprylad» was chosen as the object of study. We used the following methods of research in the paper: SWOT-analysis, scenario-analysis, objectives tree, the matrix method. Conclusions and directions of further research. Nowadays, in a dynamic and unpredictable environment, many business models of domestic enterprises have lost their efficiency and competitiveness. Local enterprises, which used traditional business models, suffer losses and drop out of the market. Conversely, a number of business models, not topical in the pre-crisis period, were highly effective during a crisis and provided enterprises, which use them, with new opportunities for growth and development of business. The authors have developed a selection technology of the enterprise business model, which involves the use of the combination of scenarios, strategic alternatives matrix, SWOT-analysis and the method of «decisions tree» in the implementation of five main stages (from generation of scenarios to their economic evaluation). The application of this technology in practice will provide instruments for Ukrainian enterprises, concerning justificated selection of a new business model according to market trends and set goals of development. Testing of this technology at a specific investigated enterprise by the method of situational analysis proves the validity of the proposed technology of business model selection to ensure efficient intentionally directed adapting of enterprise to dynamic market conditions. In the next studies, the authors plan to develop this technology in accordance with the objectives of multi-profile enterprises, diversification of which complicates the selection of one business model for all areas of the enterprise activity. Portfolio management of the enterprise business models will be the subject of the authors further research.
Keywords: business model, technology of business model choosing, SWOT-analysis, scenario analysis, generation of alternative scenarios, objectives tree, matrix of strategic alternatives
JEL Classification: L10, C61, L68.
Cite as: Krykavskyi Ye. & Chukhrai, A. (2014). Scenario analysis in business model choosing for instrument-making enterprise. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 2, 54-70. https://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2014.2-05
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