Abstract

Climate change raises the risk on food security, alters the cropping pattern, and secondly, it also plays the triggering role to widen inequality. The South Asian region is home to nearly half of the poor and malnourished population of the world. In South Asia — Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan encounter similar climate induced changes though they differ in their socio-political, economic, and cultural conditions. The physiological population densities (farming population per unit of agricultural land) suggest that these countries belong to the threat zone in terms of climate change impact on agriculture. It has been obvious that any unfavorable climatic conditions mean poor agricultural growth which will have serious ramification on the countries’ economies. Poverty induces poverty; because of the rudimentary technologies used in agriculture, more manpower is needed for farming thus encouraging couples to increase family manpower to invest on farming, which might lead to overpopulation. This paper evaluates how climate change has direct impact on the agricultural development and broader economic growth in the global context and South Asia (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan). Paper unveils the climate change induced challenges in agriculture with the empirical evidence, elaborates the consequences to the farmers livelihood and food security. Based on secondary information, this paper provides climate change risk scenario and recommends few coping strategies to minimize the climate change impact in farming systems and pathway for the future research.

Keywords: South Asia, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Agriculture, Food Security, Food Insecurity, Climate Change, Subsistence Farming, Livelihood, Coping Strategies.

JEL Classification: Q1, Q10, Q18.

Cite as: Bhandari, M.P. (2021). Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture, a Case Study of Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. SocioEconomic Challenges, 5(2), 35-48. https://doi.org/10.21272/sec.5(2).35-48.2021

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

References

1. Adger, W. N. et al. (2007). Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints, and capacity. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Available at: [Link].
2. Adhikari, Jagannath (2008). Food Crisis in Karnali: A Historical and Politico-economic Perspective. Kathmandu, Nepal: Martin Chautari. Available at: [Link].
3. Akinnagbe, O.M. and Irohibe, I.J. (2014). Agricultural Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts in Africa: A Review. Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 39(3), 407-418. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
4. Aryal, Jeetendra Prakash, Tek B. Sapkota, Ritika Khurana, Arun Khatri‑Chhetri, Dil Bahadur Rahut1 and M. L. Jat (2020). Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 22, 5045–5075. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
5. Associates, prepared with the support of the Climate and Land Use Alliance. Report and supplementary. Available at: [Link].
6. Axinn, W.G., and D. Ghimire (2007). Social Organization, Population, and Land Use. University of Michigan: Population Studies Center. Aailable at: [Link].
7. Bandara, J. S., & Cai, Y. (2014). The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 44, 451–465. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
8. BBC Nepali News daily (2018). The Climate Change Impact on Agriculture, BBC, Nepali. Available at: [Link].
9. Bhandari, Medani P. (2012) Environmental Performance and Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study of India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, “Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management” Series: Climate Change Management (pp 149-167), Springer, New York / Heidelberg. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
10. Bhandari, Medani P. (2020). Getting the Climate Science Facts Right: The Role of the IPCC, River Publishers, Denmark / the Netherlands. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
11. Bhatta, Gopal Datt and Pramod Kumar Aggarwal (2016) Coping with weather adversity and adaptation to climatic variability: a cross-country study of smallholder farmers in South Asia, Climate and Development, 8:2, 145-157. [CrossRef].
12. Bhattarai, K. (2010). Land ownership and the use of forest in Nepal, VDM Publishing House. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
13. Brown, O. (2008). Migration and Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: InternationalOrganization for Migration. Available at: [Link].
14. Cai, W, Borlace, S., Lengaigne, M., Rensch, P. V., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Timmermann, A., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M. J., Wu, L., England, M. H., Wang, G., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F. (2014). Change, 4, 111–116. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
15. Carr, D. L. (2009). Population and deforestation: why rural migration matters. Progress in Human Geography 33 (3):355-378. [CrossRef].
16. CBS (1996a). Nepal Living Standards Survey Report, vol. I. Kathmandu, Nepal: Central Bureau of Statistics. Available at: [Link].
17. CBS (1996b). Nepal Living Standards Survey Report, vol. II. Kathmandu, Nepal: Central Bureau of Statistics. Available at: [Link].
18. CBS (2010). Statistical Yearbook. Central Bureau of Statistics, Government of Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal. Available at: [Link].
19. Chhetri, N.B. (2008). Understanding the Process of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: Analysis of Climate-Induced Innovation in Rice Based Cropping System of Nepal. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA Interim Report October 2008. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
20. Cruz, R.V., Harasawa, H., Lal, M., Wu, S., Anokhin, Y., Punsalmaa, B., Honda, Y., Jafari, M., Li, C., Huu, N. (2007). Asia. Climate change, 2007, impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P. et al. (eds.). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 469–506. Available at: [Link].
21. Dickie, A., Streck, C., Roe, S., Zurek, M., Haupt, F., Dolginow, A. (2014). Strategies for Mitigating Climate Change in Agriculture: Abridged Report. Available at: [Link].
22. FAO (2008). Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in The Food And Agriculture Sector, FAO, Rome. Available at: [Link].
23. FAO (2015). Climate Change and Food Security: Risks and Responses, FAO, Rome. Available at: [Link].
24. FAO (2019). FAO’s Work on Climate Change, United Nations, Climate Change, FAO, Rome. Available at: [Link].
25. FAO (2021). The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security: 2021. Rome. Available at: [Link].
26. Feleke, S., Kilmer, R., and Gladwin, C. (2005). Determinants of food security in Southern Ethiopia at the household level. Agricultural Economics, 33, 351-363. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
27. Germanwatch (2020). Global Climate Risk Index 2020, Germany. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
28. Ghale, Y. (2010). Right to food and food security in the changing context. Pyakuryal, P. N. and B. R. Upreti (eds). Land Agriculture and Agrarian Transformation. Consortium for Land Research and Policy Dialogue (COLARP). Available at: [Link] (retrieved 6/8/2018)
29. Ghimire, A. and B. R. Upreti (2010). The forgotten forces: Role of migrants in post-conflict Nepal. In Upreti, B. R., S. R. Sharma, K. N. Pyakuryal, and S. Ghale (eds.). The Remake of a State: Post- Conflict Challenges and State Building in Nepal. South Asia Regional Coordination Office of the Swiss National center of Competence in Research (NCCR North-South) and Human and Nature Resources Studies Centre, Kathmandu University, Nepal. Available at: [Link].
30. Global Food Security Program. (2015). Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system. FAO, Rome. Available at: [Link].
31. Huddleston, B., E. Ataman, P. De Salvo, M. Zanetti, M. Bloise, J. Bel, G. Francheschini, and L. Fed’Ostiani, (2003). Towards a GIS-Based Analysis of Mountain Environments and Populations. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. Available at: [Link].
32. IPCC (1990). The Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Impacts on Agriculture and Forestry, IPCC, Geneva. Available at: [Link].
33. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon, S., Quin, D., Manning, M., Chen, X., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, H.L., Miller, M. (eds.). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1–996. Available at: [Link].
34. IPCC (2014). Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Geneva. Available at: [Link].
35. IPCC (2018). IPCC Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems. In: Global Warming of 1.5 °C. Special Report of the IPCC, Geneva. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/03/SR15_FGD_Chapter_3.pdf
36. Kim, Chang‐Gil (2019). Low Carbon Green Growth Roadmap for Asia and the Pacific, The Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector: Implications of the Agro‐Industry for Low Carbon, Green Growth Strategy and Roadmap for the East Asian Region, Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), South Korea. Available at: [Link].
37. Mazurek, Brie (2021). CUESA Organization. San Francisco, CA. Available at: [Link].
38. Nagi, Chanana N., Aggarwal, P.K. (2020). Woman in agriculture, and climate risks: hotspots for development. Climatic Change, 158, 13–27. [CrossRef].
39. NSAC (2019). Agriculture and Climate Change: Policy Imperatives and Opportunities to Help Producers Meet the Challenge. National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition. Washington D.C. Available at: [Link].
40. Ortiz, R., Sayre, K. D., Govaerts, B., Gupta, R., Subbarao, G., Ban, T., et al. (2008). Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat? Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 126, 46–58. [CrossRef].
41. Pandey, Vijay Laxmi, S. Mahendra Dev, Usha Jayachandran (2016). Impact of agricultural interventions on the nutritional status in South Asia: A review. Food Policy, 62, 28–40. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
42. Parry, M., Arnell, N., Berry, P., Dodman, D., Fankhauser, S., et. al. (2009). Report on Reports: adaptation to climate change: assessing the costs. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 51, 29–36. [CrossRef].
43. Parry, M.L. (1990). Climate change and world agriculture. Earthscan Publications Ltd, London. On potential impacts on agriculture: See Parry, M.L., Carter, T.R. and Konijn, N.T. (1988 eds.). The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture, Volume 1, Assessments in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions. Volume 2, Assessments in Semi-Arid Regions (Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer). Available at: [Link].
44. Petit, J.R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N.I., Barnola, J.M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V.M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V.Y., Lorius, C., Pépin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., Stievenard, M. (1999). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, 399, 429–436. Available at: [Link].
45. Pradhan, Neera Shrestha, Suman Sijapati & Sagar Ratna Bajracharya (2015). Farmers’ responses to climate change impact on water availability: insights from the Indrawati Basin in Nepal. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 31(2), 269-283. [CrossRef].
46. Pyakuryal, B., Roy, D. and Thapa, Y. B. (2010). Trade liberalization and food security in Nepal. Food Policy, 35(1), 20-31. [CrossRef].
47. Pyakuryal, P. N. and B. R. Upreti (2010) (eds). Land Agriculture and Agrarian Transformation. Consortium for Land Research and Policy Dialogue (COLARP), Nepal. Available at: [Google Scholar], [CrossRef].
48. Rasul, G., Saboor, A., Tiwari, P.C., Hussain, A., Ghosh, N. and Chettri, G.B. (2019). Food and nutritional security in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Unique challenges and niche opportunities. In: The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People in P. Wester, A. Mishra, A. Mukherji, and A.B. Shrestha, (eds.). Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 627. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
49. Schmidhuber, J., & Tubiello, F. N. (2007). Global food security under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 19703–19708. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
50. Shakya, S., Gyawali, D.R., Gurung, J.K. & Regmi, P.P. (2013). A trailblazer in adopting climate smart practices: One cooperative’s success story. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
51. Shrestha, N. R. and K. Bhattarai (2003). Historical Dictionary of Nepal, The Scarecrow Press, Inc. Available at: [Link].
52. Shrestha, R.P., and N. Nepal, (2016). An assessment by subsistence farmers of the risks to food security attributable to climate change in Makwanpur Nepal. Food Secur., 8, 415–425. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
53. Sivakumar, M.V.K. and Stefanski, R. (2011). Climate Change in South Asia, in R. Lal et al. (eds.). Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia. Available at: [Link].
54. Tewari, Poonam, Pratibha Singh and Deepika Verma (2019). A study on awareness of farm women regarding climate change and its coping strategies. International Journal of Home Science, 5(3), 150-153. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
55. Thapa, Y. B. (2010). Political economy of conflict and agrarian change in Nepal. In Pyakuryal, P. N. and B. R. Upreti (2010) (eds). Land Agriculture and Agrarian Transformation. Consortium for Land Research and Policy Dialogue (COLARP). Available at: [Link].
56. The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research-CGIAR (2011). CRP7 Proposal: Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Lead Center: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Headquarters, Cali, Colombia. Available at: [Link].
57. Tiwari, P.C., and B. Joshi, (2012). Natural and socio-economic factors affecting food security in the Himalayas. Food Secur., 4, 195–207. Available at: [Link], [CrossRef].
58. Tubiello, F.N. (2005). Climate variability and agriculture: perspectives on current and future challenges. In: Knight, B. (ed.). Impact of climate change, variability and weather fluctuations on crops and their produce markets. Impact Reports, Cambridge, UK, pp 45–63. Available at: [Link].
59. UN Women. (2020). From Insights to Action: Gender equality in the wake of COVID-19. Available at: [Link].
60. (2016). The Adaptation Finance Gap Report. Available at: Available at: [Link]. (16 November 2019).
61. (2018). Human Development Indices and Indicators 2018 Statistical Update. Available at: [Google Scholar] (16 November 2019).
62. (2019). Frontiers 2018/19. Emerging Issues of Environmental Concern. United Nations Environment Programme: Nairobi. Available at: [Link].
63. (2007). Climate Change: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries. Available at: [Link] (24 November 2019).
64. (2018). Kenya Humanitarian Situation Report. Available at: [Link] (07 November 2019).
65. United Nations (2015). 70 years, 70 documents. Available at: [Link] (September 21, 2020).
66. United Nations (2015). Resolution Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Available at: [Link] (November 5, 2020).
67. Upreti, B.R., S. R. Sharma, K.N. Pyakuryal, and Ghimire, S. (2010). The Remake of a State: Post- Conflict Challenges and State Building in Nepal. South Asia Regional Coordination Office of the Swiss National center of Competence in Research (NCCR North-South) and Human and Nature Resources Studies Centre, Kathmandu University, Nepal. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
68. Vinke, K., Martin, M. A., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Bondeau, A., Coumou, D., et al. (2017). Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: Extremes of water scarcity and excess. Regional Environmental Change, 17, 1569–1583. Available at: [Link].
69. WDI, (2014). Washington. World Bank, DC. [CrossRef].
70. WEF (2021). Here’s how we can use agriculture to fight climate change, 2021 World Economic Forum. Available at: [Link].
71. WFP and FAO. (2007). Food and Agricultural Markets in Nepal. Final Report, Katmandu. Available at: [Link].
72. (2017). (Un)natural Disasters: Communicating Linkages Between Extreme Events and Climate Change. Available at: [Link] (16 November 2019).
73. World Bank Data (2011). Multi scale data portal, World Bank, Washington, DC. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].
74. World Bank. (2015). Agricultural Risk Management in the Face of Climate Change. Washington, DC. Available at: [Link].
75. World Bank (2020). The Adaptation Principles: 6 Ways to Build Resilience to Climate Change, World Bank, Washington, DC. Available at: [Link].
76. WRI (2019). Ways Farmers Can Adapt to Climate Change and Generate Income, World Resources Institute, Washington DC. Available at: [Google Scholar], [Link].